Voters trust Harris more than Trump to handle economy, new poll finds

New polling shows that, for the first time, voters say they trust Vice President Kamala Harris on the economy more than former President Donald Trump.

A University of Michigan and Financial Times poll, which surveyed voters nationwide between Aug. 1-5, found that 42% of the 1,001 voters surveyed rated Harris as the presidential candidate they “trust most to handle the economy,” while 41% said they trusted Trump more.

While Harris’ 1-point lead over Trump on economic issues is within the poll’s margin of error of 3.1%, it marks a significant shift in voters’ opinions.

Voters solidly preferred Trump to President Joe Biden when asked the same question in the months leading up to Biden’s decision to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race. Trump’s numbers have not changed since February, when the same survey also showed 42% of voters trusted him on the economy. Biden received trust from 31% of voters in the poll; his numbers improved through July, when 35% of voters said they trusted him on economic issues, but he remained underwater compared to Trump.

The survey shows 58% of voters currently disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy.

A slight majority, 53%, said they will base their decision in the 2024 presidential election on economic issues.

Voters’ trust in Harris is notable given that voters still rank inflation highly among their concerns — 78% of those surveyed in August said they were worried about price increases, only slightly down from 80% in May and 85% in January. The survey also shows 73% rated economic conditions as negative in August.

The survey did not ask voters the reasons for their feelings on Trump or Harris’ economic policies. But economic conditions at the end of four years of the Trump administration were in many ways worse than current conditions. The national unemployment rate at this time four years ago — the same point in Trump’s presidency — was 8.4%, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Today, it’s roughly half that, at 4.3%.

Voters in the survey said they are still suffering from higher food prices, with 78% noting that as an area of concern in August. Food inflation is finally starting to slow down, however. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, food prices increased 0.2% between May and June 2024, and were up 2.2% from June 2023. Food prices had increased as much as 11% between 2021 and 2022. On Aug. 14, Politico reported that Harris plans to call on Congress to ban price gouging as part of her plan to lower the cost of groceries and other essentials.

The survey also showed 51% of voters rate gasoline prices as a point of concern. The average cost of a gallon of gas in the U.S. was over $5 in June 2022, but had dropped to $3.60 by June 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.